Pitcher Abuse Points

Some further thoughts on Rootin' Tootin' Rich Harden's gun-slingin' showdown with The Cincinnati Kid ...

The other day we noted that Rich Harden may have been overexntending himself when he dialled it up to hit triple-digits pitching to Ken Griffey, Jr. near the end of a 5.1 inning, 106-pitch effort.

To clarify our original point, it's our understanding from a cursory reading of Woolner/Jayazerli/Carroll et al. that the significant risk factor with pitchers is not raw pitch counts per se; but that, given any spectrum of physiological and experiential parameters, higher risk obtains when a pitcher expends maximal or near-maximal effort at or beyond a point of physical exhaustion. ("Exhaustion," of course, in the technical sense of hvaing excessively stressed out certain muscle groups, not the common-sense usage of being so overall physically tired as to collapse.)

Harden is a high-strikeout/high-walk pitcher, and was true to form against the Reds. While he does have excellent mechanics, he has admittedly been tinkering with his delivery (working with Curt Young to stop altering his eyeline mid-delivery, e.g.) and is young both experientially and physically.

Tossing over 100 pitches in under 6 innings is not an efficient pitch count; and we think it's safe to assume that an inefficient pitch count, more so than a high raw pitch count, implies excessive strain. Harden then turned it up a notch to throw cheese past Griffey -- meaning that he was operating at maximal or near-maximal effort.

So: exhausting inefficient workload, followed by maximal effort, all by a young pitcher with a relatively unconditioned arm. That's what worries us.

Now, nearly every beat writer has been pushing Macha's quote regarding the two off days (yesterday and this coming Monday) for the rotation, implying that no one's turn will be skipped.

An extra day or two of rest will certainly benefit Harden, to recover from this last start and to ensure that his strength and endurance are maximized.

But given what we outlined above, we would not be at all surprised to see Harden's spot skipped on the next go-through.

Worrywart, or, Every Silver Lining Has a Cloud ...

Yes, the A's whomped the Reds again last night.

Yes, the hitting continues in high gear, even with the continued absence of Chavez.

Yes, our overall prospects look much better than those of the Angels, pace Rob Neyer's piece today.

However ...

The Confidence Man is a bit concerned about Rich Harden.

Harden had a tough-as-nails showdown with Ken Griffey, Jr. in the 6th inning last night. Ken Arneson waxes rhapsodic over said at-bat here at Will Carroll's joint.

Whereas Ken sees the joy in Harden reaching back for something extra (97-98-100-98 mph pitch sequence) trying to whiff Griffey, The Confidence Man sees the callow overconfidence of youth -- and the lack of a guiding paternalistic hand.

Ken does concede that after the Griffey at bat, Harden fell apart. But he notes no seriously ill consequences.

The Confidence Man, however, fully expects that Harden may report "stiffness" in his arm, leading to a skipping of his next turn in the rotation. Not that we have any inside dope, or anythign like that. But the pattern -- headstrong young hurler overamps his deliver to impress living legend at bat -- gives us much trepidation. Again, we have to ask: where was pitching coach Curt Young? Yes, it's good to see Harden confident and going right after hitters -- but what good does it do to have him blow out his arm doing so? Note also that Harden threw 106 pitches in 5-1/3 innings.

We'll be monitoring the wires for reports on any of Harden's lingering aftereffects.

On a sidebar, various commenters at Athletics Nation* note that Neyer conspicuously fails to eat crow for his antiHattebergianism; The Confidence Man would also like to point out that Neyer neglects the recent hot streaks of Kotsay and Crosby, which have propelled them both to respectiable offensive profiles of late.

*Note: corrected ascription of anti-antiHattebergian comments.

Apes and Angels

Yes, we have to admit, we are fans of the Rally Monkey -- in principle.

We really don't like the Angels, and we do subscribe to the conventional sabermetric wisdom that two years ago the Angels basically got really, really lucky. We do, however, have a great deal of admiration for Arte Moreno. He seems like not only a "class act" and a "stand-up guy," but also a pretty danged shrewd businessman and marketer (with the Garrett Anderson extension, maybe not so much).

But, yeah, a monkey jumping up and down on the JumboTron in late innings? Priceless.

As we say here at Monkeyball!, You can't spell "monkey" without "money."

Let Rickey Be Rickey ... Again

Over in the Comments vault at Athletics Nation, the sage and voluble Jeff Beresford-Howe notes once again the A's craptastic tendencies whilst motoring about the basepaths.

(As an aside, The Confidence Man feels that Mr. Beresford-Howe is on the verge of Blogdom: his comments at AN are becoming longer and longer and more and more incisive. Plus, if "Beresford-Howe" isn't a pseudonym, The Confidence Man will eat his hat. Well, ok, on second thought, if it was a nom de champ, the first name would be "Geoffrey," wouldn't it?)

Jeff quixotically lays a significant portion of the blame for the A's poor baserunning at the feet of 3B/infield/running coach Ron "The Human Windmill" Washington. (Get it? "Quixotically" ... "windmill" ... oh, never mind ...) "Wash" is wildly popular with his charges (note Chavez' gifting of his third Gold Glove trophy to the coach this spring) and generally regarded by the A's beat media and the fans as something of a miracle worker when it comes to coaching fundamentals.

However, as Jeff notes, part of Wash's responsibility is baserunning fundamentals, at which the A's ... well ... suck.

The postseason gaffes, from "Slide, Jeremy, Slide!" to Tejada and Byrnes' Mosaic trek against the Bosox last year, have been only the most spectacular of the A's random rambles, reflecting a confused and undisciplined approach by most of the team year in and year out. To call Wash "The Unluckiest Coach in Baseball" is one thing; to allow the A's stumblebum baserunning to continue unimpeded (to use an inapt term) is unacceptable.

The Confidence Man has a modest proposal. (Yes, now we're veering toward the Cliffs of Pretension: Cervantes, the Old Testament, and now Swift in our quiver of allusions ...)

Bring back Rickey Henderson.

The Rickey is currently toiling in the Independent League, and is eager for a chance to notch his 300th HR. And to burnish the legend of The Rickey, of course. He'd work cheap, and apparently all indications from San Diego in his last go-round were that The Rickey was comfortable with his role as a pinch-hitter/pinch-runner/ad-hoc-baserunning-sage/OBP-guru/consigliere, and he did in fact "play well with others."

Yes, The Rickey's bat speed has evaporated, and he has virtually no power. However, we're currently wasting a roster spot on Karros (plus, McMillon has not gotten much playing time and hasn't hit especially well, either). And Rickey can still draw a walk, slap the ball the other way, move runners over, etc.

If Beane could establish a rapport with The Rickey (emphasize The Rickey's "value to the franchise," the opportunity to "cement his legacy," perhaps offer a coaching/PR/front office sinecure after this year), Henderson could provide a great source for baserunning tutelage, an object lesson in the value of OBP and pitch selectivity (i.e., Frankie Menechino with foot speed), a non-Byrnes pinch-runner option, and an occasional late-inning walk/single/non-GIDP off the bench in a tight spot.

No, this wouldn't solve our most immediate and pressing problems (a power-hitting, non-Mr. Glass infielder and a power arm in the 'pen). But it would be a cheap and cost-effective way to address a medium- to long-term challenge: namely, how to minimize risk and maximize scoring opportunities in high-pressure small-samle-size contests. You know, Billy, those times when "[your] shit doesn't work"?

Ce n'Est Pas une Ken Macha Deathwatch

Well, as they say, never write angry -- ok, we're gonna break that rule right off the bat.

Responsibility for tonight's embarrassing loss to Toronto should be laid squarely at Oakland manager Ken Macha's lethal feet.

Yes, once again the bullpen blew an outstanding effort from the starter (in this case, Rich Harden, who went 7 innings and only gave up 1 run).

Yes, yet again the offense shed white blood cells at an alarming rate.

However, once things get tight in the late innings, actual tacical decisions can indeed make the difference.

And Macha made some serious errors in judgment in the late going, especially in the 8th inning.

Let's set the table: the aforementioned Harden pitched extremely well through 7, showing excellent command of his pitches and mixing speeds and eye levels very well. He did throw 103 pitches, though, and being that he's 22, Macha made the sensible move and brought Bradford in to start the 8th to face two right-handed Toronto batters, with LH Hinske in the hole. Score is tied 1-1.

Bradford made short work of the righties, establishing his cutter and change low in the zone. Two outs, Hinske to the plate. Bradford gets ahead 1-2 -- and then Hinske starts fouling pitches off. Bradford's pitches are moving laterally fairly well, but he's missing Miller's target up on every single foul ball -- 5 in all by Hinske, maintaining the count.

Here's where the errors in judgment start.

Bradford is highly effective against righties -- and much less so against lefties. And when he elevates his pitches, he gives up gophers from both sides of the plate. So: we've got a power-hitting leftie at the plate, and Bradford is having trouble keeping the ball down, consistently making his catcher reach up 6-12 inches from his set target to catch the ball. And Hinske is right on every elevated pitch, swatting foul the pitches on the black.

And no visit to the mound by Miller. Not even one of those Pudge Rodriguez "settle down there, mister" two-handed palms-down gestures.

No visit to the mound by pitching coach Curt Young, who should plainly see that Bradford is rushing his pitches, not finishing them off, and floating them above Miller's target.

No visit to the mound by Macha -- who, to be fair, would have to lapse into rarefied Jimy Williams territory to yank a pitcher with 2 out and 2 strikes, even in the 8th inning of a tie game.

Sigh. So what happens? The Confidence Man says to himself, "5 foul balls? Next pitch is going yard."

Quid erat demonstrandum. Hinske yanks the next pitch on a line 5 rows deep in the right-field bleachers. 2-1, Jays.

After that, Bradford predictably gives up a couple more insurance runs. 4-1, Jays, heading to the bottom of the 8th.

Up for the A's, slots 4-6: Dye (RH), Durazo (LH), and Miller (RH). Pitching for Toronto, Vinnie "The Vincredible" Chulk (RH).

Dye enfeebles himself, K'ing on 3 pitches. Durazo smashes a grounder past 1B for a single. 1 out, man on 1st, and coming to the plate we have right-handed catcher Damian Miller, who is still smarting from a week-old HBP to the left elbow, which has rendered his swing Neifiesque (tonight's Coors-aided HR notwithstanding). So, you figure, rightie-rightie matchup, Miller hardly able to swing the bat, slow runner on first, slower runner at the plate -- time to call on one of our LH pinch-hitters, right? McMillon and Kielty both available.

Wrong. Miller "hits" for himself -- striking out, and looking like his hands are going to fall off and he's going to start crying with every swing. Crosby makes out to end the "threat."

Top 9, Toronto gets yet another couple runs, these off of Hammond, abetted by rookie 3B Esteban "Steve Deutsch" German's egregious throwing error. 6-1, Jays, down to the final at-bats.

Due up, we've got ... German (RH), Scutaro (RH), and Kotsay (LH). Chulk (RH) still pitching.

Now, German has enjoyed some success hitting at Sacramento (AAA) the last couple years, but he's been overmatched with every cup of coffee he's had. Plus, he just made an embarrassing error in the top of the inning. And, of course, he bats right-handed. Paging Billy or Bobby -- no. German bats for himself. And goes down quickly.

So now Scutaro -- no, wait, he's pulled back for ... a left-handed pinch-hitter. With 1 out already. And batting is McMillon -- who, we must point out, has not been given enough spot playing time by Macha to stay fresh. 2 outs.

Kotsay gets a meaningless single, Byrnes works a slightly less meaningless walk -- and Hatteberg makes the final out. (All three final hitters, by the way, working with 2-strike counts.)

Exceedingly poor personnel management tonight. I'll be the first to grant that Macha has to make do with a dodgy bullpen and feeble offense (hey, even with Chavez in the lineup, we still were in need of an extra bat) provided by Billy Beane. But tonight was exemplary of why Macha costs the A's wins they can not afford to lose.

All that being said, it's a given that Macha will not be fired -- less because he's "Billy's guy" (hand-picked to take over after Art was Howe-sted), than because firing the manager is an old-school, light-a-fire-under-'em, non-Moneyball motivational tactic.

And also, perhaps, because Beane is loath to concede any mistakes (cf, Terrence Long, Arthur Rhodes). Firing Macha would be a tacit admission that Beane chose wrongly.

Look, we're A's fans. We want to see the team do well -- and we actually like Ken Macha, we really do. But he's costing his team wins, and we can't have that.